Even the most dedicated academic invasion biologists—such as Daniel Simberloff and Doug Tallamy—concede that not all introduced plants are invasive. However, they claim that all introduced plants have the potential to become invasive.
Early in the rise of invasive biology, over 25 years ago, much research effort was devoted to determining the factors that could predict which plants would become invasive. Theoretically, if we could predict an invasive future for an introduced plant we could make an early effort to eradicate them before they became entrenched, naturalized members of an ecosystem. At that point, most invasion biologists concede that landscape-scale attempts to eradicate non-native plants are futile.
The most recent attempt to identify the factors that contribute to “invasability” is a study led by Assistant Professor Moshen Mesgaran in the Department of Plant Sciences at UC Davis: “Invading plants remain undetected in a lag phase while they explore suitable climates.” (1) This study claims that it can take hundreds of years for non-native plants to become “invasive,” which the authors call “lag time.”
The study got my attention because it seemed obvious that the behavior of all plants, whether native or non-native, has changed greatly in the past 300 years, because of many changes in the environment, most notably climate change. What is described by the study as “lag time” between the time of the introduction of a non-native plant and its invasive behavior, seems primarily the predictable response of plants to climate and other changes that we should expect.
When I mentioned this study to one of my scientific advisors, he pointed out the most obvious flaw in the study, which casts doubt on the study’s conclusions. The study claims that plantain (Plantago lanceolata) had lag time of 177 years, the longest of any introduced plant in the United States: “Consider the common lawn weed Plantago lanceolata, otherwise known as ribwort or buckhorn plantain, which has the longest dormancy in the United States, according to the report. Noxious to livestock and native plants, the plant was introduced in the United States in 1822 and is found widely here.” (2)
In fact, plantain arrived in the US long before 1822 and was quickly widespread shortly after its arrival in the 17th century. Plantain arrived first to the East Coast with early settlers, along with many other weeds. John Josselyn visited New England in 1638 and 1663 and made a record of English weeds in New England—including Plantago lanceolata—that was published in the 19th century.
Native Americans of the Northeast also made a record of the arrival and spread of plantain in New England: Plantain “was called ‘Englishman’s foot’ by the Amerindians of both New England and Virginia, who believed in the seventeenth century that it would grow only where the English ‘have trodden & was never known to grow before the English came into this country.’” (3)
The arrival and rapid spread of plantain in the US is also immortalized by American popular literature. Henry Wadsworth Longfellow described the simultaneous arrival of white people and plantain, in the epic poem, Song of Hiawatha, published in 1855: “Wheresoe’er they tread, beneath them/Springs a flower unknown among us/Springs the White-man’s Foot in bloom.”
More recently, Daniel Mason described in his novel, North Woods, the arrival of plantain in the ballast of an English ship and its subsequent spread in the New World: “And there are seeds, uncountable, scattered in the humid loam: red clover, groundsel, spurrey, trefoil, meadow fescue, dandelion, hedge parsley, nonesuch, plantain. The voyage takes two months. On landing, the ballast is removed and dumped into the harbor. Much of it—the stones, the shells, the beads, the spectacles—sinks to the bottom of the bay. But the seeds, many of the seeds, enough of the seeds, rinsed loose of their swaddling earth, are freed into the breakers and float to shore.” (4)
Plantain arrived in the western US in the early 19th century, when the Spanish brought many weeds to the West from Mexico along with their herds of cattle. Weeds from the Old World were noticed and recorded by John C. Fremont when he visited the Sacramento Valley in 1844. He also mentioned that his horses ate the weeds, and “even the squaws he met ate it [red-stemmed filaree].” (3)
English plantain “was one of the nine sacred herbs of the Anglo-Saxons, and Chaucer and Shakespeare cited its medicinal qualities. It grows wild today in all the continents but Antarctica, as well as in New Zealand and a number of islands. It rates as one of the very hardiest of weeds in the world, and it will be with us forever, apparently.” (3)
“English plantain is a major host of the buckeye butterfly from coast to coast, and in New York and perhaps elsewhere it is being used by the Eastern Baltimore Checkerspot, Euphydryas phaeton, previously considered monophagous on the wetland Scroph Turtlehead, Chelone glabra. This provided an escape from a very narrow niche!” (5) There are many instances of butterflies using plantain as their host plant in scientific literature (6)
We also question the characterization of plantain by Professor Mesgaran’s research team as a “noxious weed” that is harmful to livestock. English plantain is not listed as a “noxious weed” by the state of California (7) and its “invasiveness” is considered “Limited” by the California Invasive Plant Council. English plantain is not considered toxic to horses or cattle, according to the results of internet searches.
Plantain arrived in the New World soon after it was discovered by the Old World. It spread quickly and is now a valued member of American ecosystems, as well as most ecosystems all over the world. As we often say in defense of harmless non-native plants, “What’s the beef?”
Professor Mesgaran’s study used herbarium and climate data to analyze “over 5,700 time series (species × regions) in 3,505 naturalized plant species from nine regions in temperate and tropical climates to quantify lags and test whether there have been shifts in the species’ climatic space during the transition from the lag phase to the expansion phase.” (1) This source of information was clearly not accurate in the case of English plantain, which has been in the US over 400 years and immediately spread everywhere. I can’t speak to the study’s report of “lag times” in other global regions.
Putting aside the inaccuracy of data used by the study to report the “lag time” between the arrival of introduced plants and evidence of invasive behavior, I summarize the findings of this study:
- The behavior of plants vary from one place to another because growing conditions vary.
- When the climate changes, vegetation changes in response.
This study claims that it can take hundreds of years for non-native plants to become “invasive.” The concept of “lag time” seems to suggest that all introduced plants have the potential to become invasive. This is not a new idea among invasion biologists who consider all introduced species a problem even when there is little evidence that they are. That school of thought expects us to prevent all plant introductions because they assume that all of them will be a problem in the future. The contrarian view is:
- It is impossible to prevent all introductions of non-native plants because most are dispersed unintentionally or naturally.
- The damage that is done to the environment by futile attempts to destroy non-native species is worse than the theoretical risks that some of them will eventually become a problem.
- The resources used in the attempt to eradicate non-native species could be put to better use to benefit the environment, such as addressing the causes of climate change.
- Every non-native plant contributes to biodiversity, which creates evolutionary opportunities to adapt to the changing environment. There is far more opportunity lost when harmless non-native plants are eradicated compared to their potential to contribute to biodiversity.
- Many non-native plants are beneficial and are frequently functional substitutes for native species that are no longer adapted to the changed environmental conditions and climate.
Unfortunately, what might have been a straight-forward study (embedded in arcane jargon and complex statistical analysis) is flawed by inaccurate information about the “lag time” of specific plants in specific countries. The study claims that it took 177 years for plantain to become “invasive” in the US. In fact, plantain spread everywhere immediately after it was introduced in the 17th century and there is no evidence that it has done any harm where it lives. If we learn anything new from this study, it is that herbarium records are not a reliable source of information about the arrival and dispersal of introduced plants.
Much like the fossil record, herbarium collections can establish that a plant or animal lived in a specific place at a specific time, but they cannot provide negative evidence that the plant or animal wasn’t there or elsewhere prior to the time the specimen was collected. In any case, when plantain arrived in the US, there were few herbarium collections available to record its arrival.
This is not to say that herbarium collections are not useful for botanical research. Here are two specific examples of how herbarium collections have been used appropriately by scientists:
- Angela Moles, an Australian scientist, used the collection of a university herbarium to measure the changes in plants that were introduced to Australia. The herbarium had samples of the same species of plants collected over a 60 year period from the same location. Professor Moles found that the plants had changed in significant ways. In a sense, they were becoming Australian plants in response to the biotic (other plants and animals) and abiotic (climate, soil, etc.) conditions of their new home. She predicted that if they weren’t yet genetically distinct from their ancestors, they soon would be. Professor Moles made a TED presentation 11 years ago about her findings that is available HERE.
- Scientists used seeds in France’s National Botanical Conservatories collected in the 1990s and early 2000s to study how the plant had changed over a period of less than 30 years. The plant species they studied was capable of both self-pollination and cross-pollination by insects and other animals. They germinated the old seeds and compared their flowers with those now growing in the French countryside. They discovered that self-pollination by that plant species had increased 27 percent since the 1990s, probably in response to the significant decline in bee populations. That study was described by the New York Times.
No amount of obscure jargon and statistical analysis can compensate for flawed data: garbage in, garbage out.
- “Invading plants remain undetected in a lag phase while they explore suitable climates,” Mohsen B. Mesgaran, Nature Ecology & Evolution, February 6, 2024
- https://scitechdaily.com/invasive-time-bombs-scientists-uncover-hidden-ecological-threat/
- Alfred Crosby, Ecological Imperialism, Cambridge University Press, 2004 (second edition). The source of the quote within the quote of Crosby is from the published writings of Reverend John Clayton, a Parson with a Scientific Mind.
- Daniel Mason, North Woods, Random House, 2023
- Email communication with Professor Emeritus Arthur M. Shapiro (UCD) with permission
- “Matthew and Jonathan Douglas explicitly record oviposition on plantain in “Butterflies of the Great Lakes Region” (2005). I’m sure there are earlier such mentions.” Email communication with Professor Emeritus Arthur M. Shapiro (UCD) with permission
- https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/plant/ipc/encycloweedia/pdf/CaliforniaNoxiousWeeds.pdf